June 2025
While having a conversation with a podcast guest last week, I was introduced to a term I had never heard before: VUCA. That's an acronym that stands for volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. According to my guest, all four are touchstones for the global environment in the middle of 2025. Many people have…
May 2025
I have long been interested in the interplay between politics and the stock market. We had a fascinating real world case study that played out in real time last month.
Those who know me will likely know that I have long been a proponent of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which was put forward…
April 2025
The very first thing Prime Minister Mark Carney did upon taking office was to scrap the consumer carbon tax. Depending on your degree of cynicism, the move was either desperate or brilliant. There is not much middle ground. He did so while noting that the tax had become divisive. Few would disagree. The…
March 2025
The four words ‘this time its different’ were made famous by Sir John Templeton as an admonition against the overzealous embrace of new paradigms. To him, there is nothing new under the sun regarding the interplay of valuations and emotions in the emergence of investing bulls and bears. The thing is, sometimes the…
February 2025
I try to put robust, resilient portfolios in place for my clients. Doing so will help them stick with their products and their asset allocation no matter what happens. Some say I am trying to time the market. I disagree. No one can time markets, but people can manage risk.
The global…
January 2025
It seems few people today know about the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. At that time, one year into the Great Depression, the economies of Canada and the United States were in the dumps and political isolationism ushered in a protectionist trade policy that was prescribed as an antidote to job losses.…
December 2024
Around the middle of December, advisory firms and the people who work for them start putting out their retrospectives regarding the year that is just about to end and / or offer their forecast for the new year. I have long argued that forecasting is a mugs game. To the extent that I…
November 2024
Citizens throughout the western world have been coddled into believing economic growth and improved prosperity are their birthright. It's the elephant in the room. When historically prosperous people go to the ballot box, they routinely punish incumbent governments for what they believe are economic hard times. The old adage of “a car in…
October 2024
Nobody knows what will happen in the US election that’s just around the corner. Many people think no one should modify a portfolio in anticipation of an expected outcome. This is common advice now because things are so tight. But what we do know is that both candidates will be protectionist as President,…
Everyone encounters a point in their career where a pivotal decision is required. For me, that happened in 2009. I had been a financial advisor since 1993 and using investment policy statements (IPSs) to manage portfolios and guide investor behaviour. But I realized I could write IPSs on my own using much cheaper products while…
Research and evidence based (academic, dispassionate, independent)
Markets work (i.e., markets are “highly efficient”)
Tactical overweights and underweights based on valuations and risk
Emotional and behavioural factors play a bigger role than most acknowledge
Long-term perspective (preferably 20+ years)
Diversification within and throughout many asset classes
Account for taxes, both risk tolerance and risk capacity,…
There are two ways to invest in capital markets. The most prevalent way for retail investors is active management with a team of professionals reviewing information, trends and companies, and then making buy-and-sell decisions for like-minded unit-holders. The other way is passive management which aims to track a benchmark. The big difference is that passive products…