December 2025
As you know, I have frequently expressed concerns about high valuations for stocks. The concern has been expressed vehemently, yet so far, no serious risk has presented itself in terms of market draw downs. The narrative of US public markets being risky has not proven to be accurate over the past few years.…
November 2025
The interplay between politics and economics has never been starker. We have an American President who is doing more to stick his nose into the affairs of those that are supposed to be at arms length than any of his predecessors ever dreamed. Despite this, people who offer commentary on both the economy…
October 2025
One evening last week, at midnight, as September turned to October, various elements of the US government were shut down. This has happened before, most recently in 2018 under the same President, but this time, everything feels more ominous. In fairness, markets were indifferent to the news and have even reached new highs…
August 2025
In the eight months since Donald Trump was reinstalled as the American President, monetary policy south of the border has been subjected to political interference at an unprecedented level. Most observers are of the opinion that Jerome Powell has performed his duties honourably and that the monetary stance taken has been broadly reflective…
July 2025
There's an old joke that even a broken clock is right twice a day. At the risk of sounding (and acting) like a broken clock, I wanted to take this opportunity to reiterate a concern that many people have heard me express previously: markets are expensive and therefore risky.
To compound matters further,…
June 2025
While having a conversation with a podcast guest last week, I was introduced to a term I had never heard before: VUCA. That's an acronym that stands for volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. According to my guest, all four are touchstones for the global environment in the middle of 2025. Many people have…
May 2025
I have long been interested in the interplay between politics and the stock market. We had a fascinating real world case study that played out in real time last month.
Those who know me will likely know that I have long been a proponent of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which was put forward…
April 2025
The very first thing Prime Minister Mark Carney did upon taking office was to scrap the consumer carbon tax. Depending on your degree of cynicism, the move was either desperate or brilliant. There is not much middle ground. He did so while noting that the tax had become divisive. Few would disagree. The…
March 2025
The four words ‘this time its different’ were made famous by Sir John Templeton as an admonition against the overzealous embrace of new paradigms. To him, there is nothing new under the sun regarding the interplay of valuations and emotions in the emergence of investing bulls and bears. The thing is, sometimes the…
February 2025
I try to put robust, resilient portfolios in place for my clients. Doing so will help them stick with their products and their asset allocation no matter what happens. Some say I am trying to time the market. I disagree. No one can time markets, but people can manage risk.
The global…
January 2025
It seems few people today know about the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. At that time, one year into the Great Depression, the economies of Canada and the United States were in the dumps and political isolationism ushered in a protectionist trade policy that was prescribed as an antidote to job losses.…
December 2024
Around the middle of December, advisory firms and the people who work for them start putting out their retrospectives regarding the year that is just about to end and / or offer their forecast for the new year. I have long argued that forecasting is a mugs game. To the extent that I…